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SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: Still Busy During Covid with Kevin+Jonathan

People need to buy and sell houses no matter when

Kevin+Jonathan In and On the Media

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SAN FRANCISCO CHRONICLE Q+A

The San Francisco Chronicle asks expert area realtors questions every week for their Sound-Off segment found in its Sunday Real Estate Section. The online counter part appears on SF Gate. We've been asked to contribute and do so fairly often, which is what you're seeing here.  

Q: Is it a challenge to stay busy right now? Why or why not?

A: Because our approach to real estate is quite personal and big picture, we’ve been very busy recently as the pandemic has changed personal circumstances for so many. It’s a transition period where it’s important to keep an eye on the bigger perspective, which is still strong in San Francisco: inventory and activity is up.

Buyers fortunate enough to be able to buy now are eager to secure low mortgage rates instead of paying rent. Because COVID has changed commutes, some homeowners are looking to relocate to homes with yards and more space. And there are landlords who want to leave the rental business.

Serving this wide mix of client needs takes more time and effort: property visits require PPE and scheduling; mortgage processing times are up; decisions to buy or sell consider more factors than before. This is why it’s great that there are two of us helping our clients and that we have a go-to support team to ensure nothing is missed.

The online version of this was published on July 27, 2020, while the print version was published on Sunday, July 26, 2020. Find the online version here.

People need to buy and sell houses no matter when

For More Sound-Off Snippets...

 

SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: Still Busy During Covid with Kevin+Jonathan

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SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: Impact a Second Corona Spike on San Francisco's Housing Market Considered with Kevin+Jonathan

How has another wave of Corona-19 cases impacted San Francisco’s housing market? It’s emphasized how important it is to be working with professionals like Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of San Francisco’s largest, independently owned brokerage Vanguard Properties.

Kevin Quoted in Mission Local: “Real estate market in the Mission appears to recover, for now - Mission Local”

“A lot of renters have become buyers,” observed real estate agent Kevin Ho. “All the talk of exodus — that’s the headline-grabbing news — but the real news is that a lot of buyers have a little more affordability. And a little more balance to the market allows them to own a piece of San Francisco.”

Ho said more of the buyers right now seem to be people who want to live in the home they’re purchasing, rather than using it as an investment. He said some of the recent changes to the law around tenant protections and rent forgiveness might be having an impact, and investors “don’t necessarily want to assume that risk.” In Mission Local.

Kevin on KTVU-2 Talking About Corona and SF Real Estate

San Francisco real estate and the coronavirus/COVID-19 as discussed by Kevin Ho of San Francisco’s Vanguard Properties, the leading locally owned luxury brokerage for the San Francisco Bay Area. The forecast is optimistic, the question is when.

Top Places for LGBTQ Folks to Live—and It's Not Just NYC and San Francisco | realtor.com

Talking about destination neighborhoods for LGBTQ folks, Kevin Ho of Vanguard Properties discusses how the Castro in San Francisco’s Eureka Valley, stacks up compared to other destinations and why it has a unique appeal.

SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: On Setting a List Price with Kevin Ho + Jonathan McNarry

Setting a property’s list price or better yet trying to find a property’s real market value is always tricky especially in high-value and competitive markets like San Francisco. See how Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, top-ranked agents at San Francisco’s luxury boutique brokerage Vanguard Properties handle the question in the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sound-Off Section

San Francisco Chronicle's Sound-Off: What Can Buyers Do To Help Their Agents with Kevin Ho+Jonathan McNarry

Getting into San Francisco’s real estate market can be daunting, but don’t worry, Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry have a map.

SF Gate's Sound Off: Will the 49ers playing in the Super Bowl affect open houses this weekend? 

We compare how San Francisco real estate stacks up against its Super Bowl rivals Baltimore and Kansas City. It’s not even close.

From the Chronicle: Bay Area residents still want to stay in California despite ‘mass exodus’ myths

The much hallybooed exodus isn’t as exodusing as it’s supposed to be…

There’s been a lot reported about San Francisco residents fleeing the city, causing rents to plummet and SF home sales finally embracing transparent pricing. But when looking at data from online real estate platforms, most of the real estate searching is still happening within the metro area and throughout California.

 

Source: Bay Area residents still want to stay in California despite ‘mass exodus’ myths

Kevin Quoted in Mission Local: “Real estate market in the Mission appears to recover, for now – Mission Local”

Is it a good time or not for real estate?

ON THE MEDIA 

Mission Local Talks Real Estate During Corona

Kevin gets quoted and sounds a bit more upbeat and nuanced than all those other agents. 

Is it a good time or not for real estate?

The real estate market in the Mission District and San Francisco appears to be on its way to recovering from the shutdown in March, according to several real estate agents ... 

— Originally published July 9, 2020 on missionlocal.org/2020/07/real-estate-market-in-the-mission-appears-to-recover-for-now/

Real estate market in the Mission appears to recover, for now

 

The real estate market in the Mission District and San Francisco appears to be on its way to recovering from the shutdown in March, according to several real estate agents, although some parts of the market remain sluggish.

“The market is holding up pretty strong, but it depends on the segment,” said real estate agent Ruth Krishnan. “Condos and high-rise buildings are the softest. I would say people aren’t super stoked about getting in an elevator. And people have decided that they really, really value outdoor space and greenery.”

Krishnan said her agency recently sold a condo in the Mission District on Shotwell Street.

“It did very well, but it had this beautiful private garden,” she said. “With condos, definitely the ones that are doing the best, selling the quickest, and selling for the highest prices have outdoor space. That’s a big thing for people right now.”

 

“Most of the stuff sitting right now, it just doesn’t have any yard space,” she added.

Krishnan said that, typically, March is the busiest month for real estate in San Francisco, but this year all listings were pulled when the shelter-in-place order was announced. That didn’t keep things down for long, though. The city added real estate to the list of essential businesses on March 31, and Krishnan immediately started seeing business pick up.

“I was shocked. Right coming out of [March], people were already writing very aggressive offers. I was like, ‘Wait, what? Really? Right now?’” she said.

The monthly median house sale price in San Francisco set a new record of $1.8 million in June, according to the monthly report from the Compass real estate brokerage. “But it’s just a single month,” added Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Compass.

“I never would have guessed that we would see this sort of rebound around the Bay Area, in the midst of one of the greatest health and economic crises in U.S. history,” Carlisle said.

Although the rebound in San Francisco is dramatic, it’s the smallest of the Bay Area, he said. Other counties — including more rural areas like Sonoma, Napa, Monterey, and Santa Cruz counties — have all seen spikes that “may be higher than at any time in history, in terms of offers being accepted.”

The rebound in San Francisco might not be as pronounced, perhaps, because the city has stricter shelter-in-place rules, Carlisle said, or perhaps because it’s the most densely populated region of the Bay Area.

 

“The Mission remains popular and strong,” said real estate agent Jennifer Rosdail. “The shutdown slowed it down at first, but people have figured out how to get their transactions done, and it’s accelerating a little bit.”

Since April, Rosdail said sales started coming back and have improved each month. “I’ve seen that in every segment I’ve checked — except for the luxury homes over, like, $2.5 million,” she said.

There aren’t many of those more expensive single-family homes in the Mission, but in a neighborhood like Noe Valley, the pattern is striking, Rosdail said. Single-family homes priced lower than $2.5 million there are moving much more quickly than those above $2.5 million, and more appear to be entering the market than are being sold.

“I think that dichotomy is interesting. I see a deceleration in the luxury homes” in Noe Valley, Rosdail said.


"All the talk of exodus — that’s the headline-grabbing news — but the real news is that a lot of buyers have a little more affordability. And a little more balance to the market allows them to own a piece of San Francisco." — Kevin Ho


Taking the city as a whole, Carlisle’s analysis shows luxury single-family homes priced above $3 million are increasing in price — but that’s based on properties that have accepted offers, while Rosdail is also examining the growing supply of inventory in Noe Valley.

By and large, Carlisle said he prefers not to look at individual neighborhoods.

“When you look at a specific neighborhood, the sales numbers are so low, it’s hard for the data to be statistically reliable,” he said. “I generally try to look at them only on an annual basis.”

But, even with small sample sizes, it remains the only tool we have.

Crunching the numbers for the Mission, Rosdail said things were picking up in terms of volume and price — but that didn’t mean losses had been fully recovered, especially for condos. Comparing the median price of a two-bedroom condo that sold in May this year with the same time period last year, the price had dropped from $1.25 million to $1.05 million — or about 16 percent less. But, again, prices have gone up since then.

“April was a terrible month to sell your home. May wasn’t so bad. June was pretty good,” Rosdail said. “I don’t think we’re going to experience a summer slowdown this year; I think we already had it in April. People are just going to keep charging forward.”

The pandemic has also shifted what many people normally think of as in-demand neighborhoods.

“Outer Richmond is hot right now. The Sunset is doing great, because people want more space, they want to be away from each other,” Rosdail said.  Meanwhile, condos in SoMa haven’t been moving as quickly.

“A lot of renters have become buyers,” observed real estate agent Kevin Ho. “All the talk of exodus — that’s the headline-grabbing news — but the real news is that a lot of buyers have a little more affordability. And a little more balance to the market allows them to own a piece of San Francisco.”

Ho said more of the buyers right now seem to be people who want to live in the home they’re purchasing, rather than using it as an investment. He said some of the recent changes to the law around tenant protections and rent forgiveness might be having an impact, and investors “don’t necessarily want to assume that risk.”

In San Francisco, the market for apartment buildings has also changed. For buildings with six or more apartments, Ho said the market had “quieted down, with not much movement.”

“For four units or under, we’re seeing good activity, because it’s more manageable,” he said. “Bigger buildings with multiple units, we’re seeing that market kind of take a pause as they wait and see how this pans out, because of all those changes” to rental laws.

Not all real estate agents Mission Local spoke to were convinced prices would continue to climb. An agent familiar with the Mission District, but who did not wish to be quoted by name, conveyed skepticism that the rush the city had seen over the past few months would be sustainable. Buyers may become choosier before submitting an offer on a less-desirable property, they argued, which could lead to more houses than buyers.

Analyzing numbers can tell us how the market has performed so far, but predicting the future remains as elusive as ever.

For More Media Mentions ...

 

SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: Still Busy During Covid with Kevin+Jonathan

Even during a Pandemic, people need to buy and sell houses and properties. See why it’s been such a busy market in San Francisco with Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties, the largest, locally owned and operated boutique brokerage in the Bay Area.

SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: Impact a Second Corona Spike on San Francisco's Housing Market Considered with Kevin+Jonathan

How has another wave of Corona-19 cases impacted San Francisco’s housing market? It’s emphasized how important it is to be working with professionals like Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of San Francisco’s largest, independently owned brokerage Vanguard Properties.

Kevin Quoted in Mission Local: “Real estate market in the Mission appears to recover, for now - Mission Local”

“A lot of renters have become buyers,” observed real estate agent Kevin Ho. “All the talk of exodus — that’s the headline-grabbing news — but the real news is that a lot of buyers have a little more affordability. And a little more balance to the market allows them to own a piece of San Francisco.”

Ho said more of the buyers right now seem to be people who want to live in the home they’re purchasing, rather than using it as an investment. He said some of the recent changes to the law around tenant protections and rent forgiveness might be having an impact, and investors “don’t necessarily want to assume that risk.” In Mission Local.

Kevin on KTVU-2 Talking About Corona and SF Real Estate

San Francisco real estate and the coronavirus/COVID-19 as discussed by Kevin Ho of San Francisco’s Vanguard Properties, the leading locally owned luxury brokerage for the San Francisco Bay Area. The forecast is optimistic, the question is when.

Top Places for LGBTQ Folks to Live—and It's Not Just NYC and San Francisco | realtor.com

Talking about destination neighborhoods for LGBTQ folks, Kevin Ho of Vanguard Properties discusses how the Castro in San Francisco’s Eureka Valley, stacks up compared to other destinations and why it has a unique appeal.

SF Chronicle Sound-Off Q+A: On Setting a List Price with Kevin Ho + Jonathan McNarry

Setting a property’s list price or better yet trying to find a property’s real market value is always tricky especially in high-value and competitive markets like San Francisco. See how Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, top-ranked agents at San Francisco’s luxury boutique brokerage Vanguard Properties handle the question in the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sound-Off Section

San Francisco Chronicle's Sound-Off: What Can Buyers Do To Help Their Agents with Kevin Ho+Jonathan McNarry

Getting into San Francisco’s real estate market can be daunting, but don’t worry, Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry have a map.

SF Gate's Sound Off: Will the 49ers playing in the Super Bowl affect open houses this weekend? 

We compare how San Francisco real estate stacks up against its Super Bowl rivals Baltimore and Kansas City. It’s not even close.

Debunking The Great IPO Scare of ’19 with Kevin Ho + Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties

IPO v.2019

Don't Believe the Hype: Yes, 2019's IPOs are about to blast off, but their impact will take longer to feel and may not be as great as feared

By now you've probably heard that the IPO for [insert company-of-the-moment here] is going to flood the city with millionaires and push already high real estate prices out of this world. A popular variation is that many sellers who would otherwise list and sell their properties now are withholding their properties until IPO money hits the market to cash in on the forthcoming cash surge. But delve deeper into these propositions and you'll see there's more to it than those eye-catching headlines. One: Will there really be that much new cash out there? Maybe but the Facebook IPO is instructive as the company's shares did not go crazy but went down by $20 a share in the first few months after its IPO. Okay, eventually, the stock went up and cash followed. Two: Assuming there is more cash on the market and in the accounts of all those coders and sales people, the question then becomes: when will that cash be felt on the market? What many forget is that IPOs are usually followed by restrictive periods of 6 months to a year after an IPO where employees are barred from cashing their RSUs or options in. And a lot can happen to a stock during that time. Also, remember we'll be in an election cycle by the time money from 2019 IPOs hits the market and who knows what the world will be like then. Three: Just how many employees are there who stand to benefit? Not that many, the headcount at many of the darling unicorns of the tech IPO isn't high. So is now a better time to buy or later? Even if just one property owner decides to hold on to their property for longer than they would have otherwise prices will rise as our already-limited inventory will have one less property to buy thus driving up scarcity and prices. With longer term prospects looking to be ones flush with cash, the only solace you can find mow is that interest rates have fallen since last fall and continue to be low for the time being.

By now you’ve probably heard that there are lots IPOs set to blast off for San Francisco-based companies [if not, then take a read here]. The impact of these IPOs will flood the city with copious amounts of cash and a bevy of freshly minted millionaires, who will then push already sky-high real estate prices out of this world.

A popular variation of this story is that many sellers who would otherwise list and sell their properties now are instead withholding their properties until IPO money hits the market to list the property to take advantage of the anticipated forthcoming cash surge.

But if you delve deeper into these propositions you’ll see there’s more to it than those eye-catching headlines.

Three Reasons Why Money Won’t Fall From the Sky Today… 

One: Will there really be that much cash out there? Maybe but the Facebook IPO is instructive as the company’s shares did not go crazy and went down by $20 a share in the first few months after its IPO.

(Okay, eventually, the stock went up and cash flowed forth.) 

Two: Assuming there is more cash on the market and in the accounts of all those coders and sales people, the question then becomes: when will that cash be felt on the market? What many forget is that IPOs are usually followed by restrictive periods of 6 months to a year after an IPO during which employees are barred from cashing in their RSUs or selling options. And a lot can happen to a stock during that time.

(And remember we’ll be in an election cycle by the time money from 2019 IPOs hits the market and who knows what the world will be like then.)

Three: Just how many employees are there who stand to benefit? Not that many, right? The headcount at many of the darling unicorns of the tech IPOs is relatively small.

So is now a better time to buy or later?

So, if even just a single property owner decides to hold on to their property for longer than they would have otherwise, prices will rise in the short term because that will mean one less property to buy thus driving up scarcity and prices. Indeed, the data from when Google IPO’s in 2004 that condo price growth in District 5 held at a steady 15% clip while house prices rose 5% faster than the year prior to the IPO.  

The take-away: prices for single-family homes will increase post-IPO at a higher rate than they would for condominiums so buy now while you can while interest rates are lower than they have been over the past 2 years.

 

So How Did It Go When Google Went IPO?

Google's IPO was in August 2004. We look at price growth rates for house and condo prices in District 5 (Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Mission Dolores, Duboce Triangle and the Haight) in the year before and after the IPO.

Price Change From 2002–2005

During which the average house price in District 5 grew from $948,000 to $1,074,000 to $1,292,000— by 13% and 18% respectively

[stack_progress full=”73″ label=”Sept 1 2002 – Sept 1 2003: $948,000″][stack_progress full=”83″ label=”Sept 1 2003 – Sept 1 2004: $1,074,000″][stack_progress full=”100″ label=”Sept 1 2004 – Sept 1 2005: $1,292,000″]

Price Change From 2002–2005

During which the average condominium price in District 5 grew from $613,000 to $713,000 to $827,000— holding at a steady 15% annual rate

[stack_progress full=”73″ label=”Sept 1 2002 – Sept 1 2003: $613,000″][stack_progress full=”83″ label=”Sept 1 2003 – Sept 1 2004: $713,000″][stack_progress full=”100″ label=”Sept 1 2004 – Sept 1 2005: $827,000″]

Yes, It’s possible to buy for less than 20 percent down

Twenty Percent Or Less!

The Details.

As buyers get more sophisticated by taking a bigger-picture perspective, Kevin + Jonathan offer some advice.

Q+A

Less Than 20 Percent Down? Really? 

Very possible for sure and, in some cases, even more advantageous. 

Twenty Percent Or Less!

We got an email from one set of our new buyer clients thinking that they need to wait until later in the year to buy something or to start looking because they wanted to game the system to get a better mortgage. Here’s their message to us and our response... 

We've been doing research for a few weeks now, and our conclusion is that the homes we like need a bit more down payment than we're willing to spend currently. I think we'll restart our search in a few months...

And our response:

It’s a question of various factors: the longer you wait, interest rates could be that much higher which will make your monthly payments that much higher. Moreover, every time you pay rent, you’re dulling the impact of waiting to save up more money for a down payment. Also, unless there’s a huge down payment difference, the impact on your monthly mortgage payment won’t be that much bigger. Worry less about the purchase price and focus more on the monthly payment amounts as that's the amount you actually live with.  

Remember there are such things as Census Tract loans which only require anywhere from a 3% to 10% cash down payment, but those are for certain neighborhoods that the powers that be say need to be gentrified for a lack of a better word. Other programs like the VA and FHA loans don't really work here because the prices are too expensive. Other lenders like SoFi and even Citibank have done 10% or 11% down loans too but those programs can come and go. 

We think that you should really consider using a less-than-20% down payment mortgage. After all, at least with Citi, you won’t have to pay mortgage insurance premiums (which isn’t usually tax deductible like mortgage interest is) and you will get into a house that much sooner. Beyond that, however, even if you do have the 20% down payment there may be other reasons to use a 15% down loan.   

Which are ones we can tell you when you contact us. 

You Know You Want to Learn More.

We have all kinds of insights, so you should go ahead and contact us to learn how we can help you do the most optimal thing (or least as close to that as possible).

Getting the Home Lending Process Started | Advice from Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, Vanguard Properties, San Francisco

The home lending process is one that takes time, effort and oftentimes is fraught with questions. Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, realtors who have helped many buyers win homes and purchase them using a mortgage, give some observations about what works in San Francisco.

Paying for it All: San Francisco Financed Purchases + Mortgages Considered By Kevin and Jonathan

Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties, San Francisco, consider some of the financing products they and their clients have encountered when buying and selling property in San Francisco over the past few years including fixed mortgages, adjustable ones and exotic ones — each suited for a given property and offering situation.

HELLO.

Hi, we’re Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties in San Francisco, California. We’re partners in life and in business. Together with our big black Labrador retriever, Raffi, we are top producing Realtors in San Francisco’s competitive and valuable residential real estate market.

We truly love what we do and are passionately committed to our clients, their needs and advancing their interests. We represent both buyers and sellers with many repeat clients but we are always expanding our client base. Our belief is that by working with you you will make better informed decisions in this most important of areas of life.

We invite you to contact us to learn more and to start your success story now.

SOME STUFF TO KNOW.

To that extent possible, the information here is copyright protected. But other information such as links, articles and the like are only reproduced here for market education purposes. Remember to research all matters discussed here to your own satisfaction.

Terms & Conditions

Real estate is always changing and evolving. It's complex and can be as fickle as it is surprising. And while the information and knowledge on this site is considered to be accurate and correct, it cannot be warranted. Market conditions in San Francisco, California, and the world can change with a tweet or a sneeze and is beyond anyone's control.

In San Francisco, things like local, state and federal tax regulations can change with big implications. Other things like rent control rules, eviction control, lending practices and standards, building and zoning regulations are just a few of the other things that can change with little or no notice. All of these things and other intangible factors can and will impact market values and performance. 

Kevin is a licensed California attorney but focuses on real estate about 99.9 percent of the time. It's important to note that while you can’t take the attorney out of him he will not be acting as your attorney here. This speaks to the larger point that you should also seek out qualified folks who work in their respective sectors if you have further questions. 

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Our site uses cookies developed by third parties for a variety of purposes with the most important ones to us being focused on supporting our abilities to support our clients — current and future — as they look for San Francisco real estate services.

Also, cookies may also be used to track how you use our site, which, of course, may give rise to seeing related advertisements on other websites you visit. To comply with the California Consumer Privacy Act, we have deployed various measures you may see on this site. If you have a question or concern, feel free to contact us at [email protected]. We want you to be aware that your personal information stays private with us with SSL standards here among other protocols we employ. 

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Kevin K. Ho, DRE 01875957/SBN 233408

Jonathan B. McNarry, DRE 01747295

Vanguard Properties
2501 Mission Street, San Francisco, CA 94110
555 Castro Street, San Francisco, CA 94114

San Francisco’s Tenant Buy-out Program a Year Later…

Following the Cash (For Keys) in SF

SF-Buyout Data Graphic Apr 2016

Cash for Keys a Year Later

How the City Has Changed Since New Landlord-Tenant Buyout Provisions Went Into Effect

On our way back from an appointment at City Hall to confirm a new listing that we will tell you about in future posts (very exciting) we stopped by the Rent Board just because. Really, just because. Why? The folks there, no matter how busy, are among the most knowledge and friendly in the City and have copious amounts of data on rental units, evictions and, since last year, buyouts.

San Francisco changed its policy for landlord buyouts of tenants forcing the parties to register buyouts with tenants a little more than a year ago. Apart from having to register the buyout, landlords are now required to give tenants a written disclosure outlining the process and the tenant’s right to change their mind even after an agreement is struck.

The system was an attempt to regularize the system but leads to confounding results and perplexing questions especially if a landlord’s goal is to take the building condo. If the buyout involves more than 1 tenant than the chance to convert evaporates until 2024 or later. Moreover, if there is a single tenant occupying a unit if that tenant is protected that also renders the unit ineligible for conversion, even if the tenant is more than willing to take a buyout. We called his issue out when the policy first came out and wondered if that it would give rise to a spike in Ellis Act evictions, which mandate certain relocation costs and notice period. Why? Ellis Act fees are less than historic buyout agreement prices, which are not regulated. Ellis Act evictions also render units un-rentable for anywhere from 5 to 10 years depending the circumstances. But if the goal is to simply sell off those vacated units as individual TIC units to get out of the rental business then the Ellis Act route would be the cheaper means to get to that end.

From the NYTimes: Multigenerational Homes That Fit Just Right

April 8, 2016 Advice, Trends

As more American parents, their grown children and their grandchildren live together, homebuilders accommodate the demand with specially designed houses.

Source: Multigenerational Homes That Fit Just Right

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