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Sold: 308 Red Maple, Blackhawk, Danville: Sold in 7 Days with Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, Vanguard Properties

Vanguard Properties

Kevin K. Ho, Esq. + Jonathan B. McNarry

proudly present

308 Red Maple Way
Danville

An Opportunity to Redo A Large 1980s Blackhawk Home

sold.

Marketed By:

Kevin K. Ho, Esq.
Jonathan B. McNarry

Bay East MLS No. 40888811

Top Producers, Top 21 Vanguard Properties, Top 1% of San Francisco Agents

308 Red Maple Way, Danville
Large Silver Maple Home in Blackhawk

308 Red Maple is an opportunity to revisit and rewrite the 1980s — all in the sought-after, quiet and idyllic setting of Blackhawk’s Silver Maple neighborhood in Danville. Set on a 17,000-sqft parcel, this 3,300+ sqft, detached single-family home has 2 levels, 3–4 bedrooms, 3 baths and a 3-car garage. There are 2 fireplaces, a soaring 22-ft tall living room, family room, dining room, massive kitchen and large master suite with twin walk-in closets and an almost over-sized master bathroom looking out to a yard filled with fruit trees, redwoods and more. 308 is located near the fifth hole green of the Blackhawk Country Club’s golf course and is in an outstanding school district, near amenity-rich Blackhawk Plaza, and Danville was recently named the safest community in the entire state. Unless you love the ‘80s, this home is otherwise ready for its next chapter. The potential here is almost as big as the home.

Offered at:

$995,000

SOLD: $1,200,000
in 7 days, with 21 offers and 100+disclosures sent out

CONTACT US.

Have a question? Want to setup a showing?

Feel free to call or text us…

Kevin (415) 297-7462

Jonathan (415) 215-4393

BULLET POINTS.

THE OPEN HOUSES.

Contact us for more information.

THE PHOTOS.

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THE FLOOR PLAN.

THE LOCATION. LOCATION. LOCATION.

The information contained in this material is deemed to be reliable and accurate but it is unverified. Potential buyers should take all steps necessary to satisfy themselves regarding the information contained herein or any other matter related to the property they see fit. 

234 Laussat, San Francisco Listed By Kevin K. Ho + Jonathan B. McNarry, Vanguard Properties | MLS 490778

[stack_hero_video image=”13495″ opacity=”8″ height=”100″ mpfour=”https://www.kevinandjonathan.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/234-Laussat-Intro-Shorter.mp4″]
Vanguard Properties

Kevin K. Ho, Esq. + Jonathan B. McNarry

proudly present

234
Laussat

Timeless and Picturesque Victorian Single-Family Row House

now selling

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Marketed By:

Kevin K. Ho, Esq.
Jonathan B. McNarry

MLS No. 490778

Top Producers, Top 21 Vanguard Properties, Top 1% of San Francisco Agents

Picturesque. Elegant. Comfortable.

NOW SELLING: 234 Laussat Street, San Francisco
Hayes Valley/Lower Haight/Duboce Triangle Single-Family Home

234 Laussat is a well-proportioned, single-family Victorian row home on this quiet, one-way, tree-lined lane near Duboce Park, the Wiggle, and MUNI. It’s warm, comfortable, and endearing. No. 234 has an appraiser-measured 1,500 sqft of living area over 2 levels with 2 beds and 2 full baths and a private back garden that’s a true urban retreat. Thanks to Georgian and Victorian influences, No. 234, which dates from 1890, has undeniable curb appeal and overall elegance that harkens back to a simpler time for sure.

This elegant home features a modern gas kitchen, gray-washed floors, laundry, divided glass windows, tall ceilings and a massive skylight on the top floor where the two bedrooms are. The master bedroom is spacious and has a walk-in closet and sweet Juliet-balcony overlooking the jasmine-scented back garden. There are large true-divided windows that let filtered sun into the spacious living room that also has a stylish and working fireplace. While street parking is relatively available, No. 234’s central location — in between Steiner and Fillmore Streets — and its 100 Transit Score, 97 Walk Score and 94 Bike Score means that you too can live in a simpler time without a car.

Offered at:

$1,850,000

CONTACT US.

Have a question? Want to setup a showing? 

Feel free to call or text us…

Kevin (415) 297-7462

Jonathan (415) 215-4393

BULLET POINTS.

THE OPEN HOUSES.

Saturday, November 23, 2019
2:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Sunday, November 24, 2019
2:00 p.m. – 4:00 p.m.

Contact us for more information.

THE PHOTOS.

THE WALKTHROUGH.

THE FLOOR PLAN.

With an ideal combination of location, public and private spaces, vintage finishes and contemporary updates, this sweet home encourages making dinner together, relaxing outside in your jasmine-scented private garden or cozying up in front of the fireplace.

THE LOCATION. LOCATION. LOCATION.

The information contained in this material is deemed to be reliable and accurate but it is unverified. Potential buyers should take all steps necessary to satisfy themselves regarding the information contained herein or any other matter related to the property they see fit. 

Q1 2019 in San Francisco Real Estate with Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry, Vanguard Properties

Q1 2019: A Mix of Sun, Rain and Sales

How did San Francisco real estate do in 2019 compared to 2018?

Lower Inventory Held Off Any Price Declines in the First Quarter of 2019

This spring has been wet. Really wet. More than Seattle wet. We’ve had more than 36 inches of rain here at our house for example. Over the spring, we’ve seen this: when the sun comes out people come out to open houses and when it rains they don’t. It seems simple and straightforward but it’s been the pattern we’ve been seeing this spring. So watch this space next week as this is one of the first sunny and warm weekends we’ve had in a while. 

The weather’s impact has been showing up as certain properties have amassed more days on market than you’d expect but still do well despite being on the market longer. Also, we’ve seen little surges of properties going into contract after a given sunny weekend. 

But What Will Continued Low Mortgage Interest Rates and IPO Cash Do to San Francisco's High-Value Real Estate?

What we’ve seen this spring: 

  • Buyers are out in force but inventory continues to lag
  • The quality of inventory has been okay but will May bring the stunners and special properties that folks love?
  • When people want a property, they’re throwing down more an earlier but sellers are still holding to offer dates and pushing prices up and up 
  • $1,200 is the new $1,000-a-square-foot as 7 neighborhoods now regularly see prices push beyond the $1,000/sqft barrier
  • The Lyft IPO went well the 1st day (and declined the next). This brings up a lot of talk about the impact more IPOs will bring (uber, pinterest, slack, etc), but remember, any IPO impact will be sustained over time (if there is anything appreciable) because not everyone can or will cash out their stocks and many of the people who benefit from this windfall have been there and done that and probably bought a nice house last time around. See our thoughts about that here.

Yellow = Average Prices > $1,000/sqft for all property types 

Red = Average Prices > $1,200/sqft for all property types

 

Source: SFAR MLS Sales Data

How About You?

What impact will sales figures have on your real estate position?

We beat expectations all the time. See how we can for you. 

How Did San Francisco Real Estate Fare in 2018?

Market data for San Francisco residential real estate shows that median prices for houses and condominiums held steady overall rising the most in southern parts of San Francisco. See how Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties break it apart.

Our Annual Review: Steady As She Goes — Median San Francisco Prices Rise 6% Matching Historic Norms in 2017

While 2017 may not have seemed to be the most normal year around the world — wild fires, 106° days in San Francisco, mayors suddenly leaving us early, presidential lows and a whole renewed awareness of what ‘crossing the line’ meant one thing that held unsurprisingly steady: real estate prices and value. As we’ve said time and time again, real estate is the ultimate hedge against risk, change and surprise in that it’s both an asset with value that also has utility.

What the Data Shows for San Francisco’s Real Estate Market in November 2015

The realtors released recent sales data for November showing nice growth but not nutso growth we’ve seen in years past — which is a good thing, right?

Debunking The Great IPO Scare of ’19 with Kevin Ho + Jonathan McNarry of Vanguard Properties

IPO v.2019

Don't Believe the Hype: Yes, 2019's IPOs are about to blast off, but their impact will take longer to feel and may not be as great as feared

By now you've probably heard that the IPO for [insert company-of-the-moment here] is going to flood the city with millionaires and push already high real estate prices out of this world. A popular variation is that many sellers who would otherwise list and sell their properties now are withholding their properties until IPO money hits the market to cash in on the forthcoming cash surge. But delve deeper into these propositions and you'll see there's more to it than those eye-catching headlines. One: Will there really be that much new cash out there? Maybe but the Facebook IPO is instructive as the company's shares did not go crazy but went down by $20 a share in the first few months after its IPO. Okay, eventually, the stock went up and cash followed. Two: Assuming there is more cash on the market and in the accounts of all those coders and sales people, the question then becomes: when will that cash be felt on the market? What many forget is that IPOs are usually followed by restrictive periods of 6 months to a year after an IPO where employees are barred from cashing their RSUs or options in. And a lot can happen to a stock during that time. Also, remember we'll be in an election cycle by the time money from 2019 IPOs hits the market and who knows what the world will be like then. Three: Just how many employees are there who stand to benefit? Not that many, the headcount at many of the darling unicorns of the tech IPO isn't high. So is now a better time to buy or later? Even if just one property owner decides to hold on to their property for longer than they would have otherwise prices will rise as our already-limited inventory will have one less property to buy thus driving up scarcity and prices. With longer term prospects looking to be ones flush with cash, the only solace you can find mow is that interest rates have fallen since last fall and continue to be low for the time being.

By now you’ve probably heard that there are lots IPOs set to blast off for San Francisco-based companies [if not, then take a read here]. The impact of these IPOs will flood the city with copious amounts of cash and a bevy of freshly minted millionaires, who will then push already sky-high real estate prices out of this world.

A popular variation of this story is that many sellers who would otherwise list and sell their properties now are instead withholding their properties until IPO money hits the market to list the property to take advantage of the anticipated forthcoming cash surge.

But if you delve deeper into these propositions you’ll see there’s more to it than those eye-catching headlines.

Three Reasons Why Money Won’t Fall From the Sky Today… 

One: Will there really be that much cash out there? Maybe but the Facebook IPO is instructive as the company’s shares did not go crazy and went down by $20 a share in the first few months after its IPO.

(Okay, eventually, the stock went up and cash flowed forth.) 

Two: Assuming there is more cash on the market and in the accounts of all those coders and sales people, the question then becomes: when will that cash be felt on the market? What many forget is that IPOs are usually followed by restrictive periods of 6 months to a year after an IPO during which employees are barred from cashing in their RSUs or selling options. And a lot can happen to a stock during that time.

(And remember we’ll be in an election cycle by the time money from 2019 IPOs hits the market and who knows what the world will be like then.)

Three: Just how many employees are there who stand to benefit? Not that many, right? The headcount at many of the darling unicorns of the tech IPOs is relatively small.

So is now a better time to buy or later?

So, if even just a single property owner decides to hold on to their property for longer than they would have otherwise, prices will rise in the short term because that will mean one less property to buy thus driving up scarcity and prices. Indeed, the data from when Google IPO’s in 2004 that condo price growth in District 5 held at a steady 15% clip while house prices rose 5% faster than the year prior to the IPO.  

The take-away: prices for single-family homes will increase post-IPO at a higher rate than they would for condominiums so buy now while you can while interest rates are lower than they have been over the past 2 years.

 

So How Did It Go When Google Went IPO?

Google's IPO was in August 2004. We look at price growth rates for house and condo prices in District 5 (Noe Valley, Eureka Valley, Mission Dolores, Duboce Triangle and the Haight) in the year before and after the IPO.

Price Change From 2002–2005

During which the average house price in District 5 grew from $948,000 to $1,074,000 to $1,292,000— by 13% and 18% respectively

[stack_progress full=”73″ label=”Sept 1 2002 – Sept 1 2003: $948,000″][stack_progress full=”83″ label=”Sept 1 2003 – Sept 1 2004: $1,074,000″][stack_progress full=”100″ label=”Sept 1 2004 – Sept 1 2005: $1,292,000″]

Price Change From 2002–2005

During which the average condominium price in District 5 grew from $613,000 to $713,000 to $827,000— holding at a steady 15% annual rate

[stack_progress full=”73″ label=”Sept 1 2002 – Sept 1 2003: $613,000″][stack_progress full=”83″ label=”Sept 1 2003 – Sept 1 2004: $713,000″][stack_progress full=”100″ label=”Sept 1 2004 – Sept 1 2005: $827,000″]

San Francisco Chronicle: Q+A: Kevin Ho and Jonathan McNarry Talk About Real Estate as a Hedge Against Risk

In the Media: Kevin+Jonathan on San Francisco Real Estate

The San Francisco Chronicle's Sound-Off Question Asks How Recent Stock Market Turbulence Could Impact Real Estate

Kevin+Jonathan in print on and the web. This week's question asked about stock market volatility and its impact on real estate

Real Estate as the Eternal Hedge to Risk Especially in San Francisco

Question: How concerned should buyers and sellers be about corrections in the stock market and a potential recession?

Answer:

TO HEDGE AGAINST RISK in the economy, folks should do what they always do in these times: turn to real estate. 

Unlike a stock, option or index fund, real estate is not only a means to building wealth, but owning a home has built-in tax benefits and savings while also being a potential source of revenue even during a recession.

You can live in a house, you can rent it out, you can borrow against it. You can fundamentally alter a property’s value yourself à la Home Depot or Lowes. (Think about the jail time if you altered a stock’s value yourself).

Buying real estate during turbulent times is a smart move especially if you can lock-in a relatively low mortgage interest rate (even 1/4th a point lower rate will save thousands over 30 years).

And unlike renting where money out never comes back to a tenant, mortgage payments are really payments to yourself. You’ll benefit from either increased home equity or from capital gains savings if you sell.

Now What Am I Supposed To Do?

Now that you have a sense of how Kevin+Jonathan approach an issue, see how they'd tackle your real estate goals.

For sagely advice based on client successes, email Kevin+Jonathan today

More Columns by Kevin + Jonathan

This One is Coming Soon from Kevin+Jonathan, Vanguard Properties, San Francisco, California | Top Producers | Top 1% San Francisco | 415.875.7408

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Our Annual Review: Steady As She Goes — Median San Francisco Prices Rise 6% Matching Historic Norms in 2017

The 2017 Annual Review
SF Real Estate Sales Data
What It Means

It’s time to look back at sales data for SF real estate for 2017. While 2017 may not have seemed to be the most normal year around the world — wild fires, 106° days in San Francisco, mayors suddenly leaving us early, presidential lows and a whole renewed awareness of what ‘crossing the line’ meant one thing that held unsurprisingly steady: real estate prices and value. As we’ve said time and time again, real estate is the ultimate hedge against risk, change and surprise in that it’s both an asset with value that also has utility. 

So, how did 2017 compare to 2016? 

First, remember that San Francisco homes have had the same annualized 6-percent growth rate since the Regan administration. Second, supply is incredibly low: 2016 saw 5,500 new housing units hit the market (including rental and purchase) but 2017 only saw 1,988 new units come online and there are only 3,400 units under construction currently. Then it should come as no surprise that values continued to grow steadily despite concerns about what a Trump administration could do and creeping interest rate rises. Take a look at numbers below along with our observations and thoughts about what we’ve seen and what may see going into 2018.

 

Big Gains in 2017 Are Just the Start for District 3’s Rise  

As we predicted last year, the biggest gains in median home values took place near SF State and the Excelsior. This is thanks to more value-minded buyers being pushed out of neighborhoods like the Sunset, Mission Terrace, Glen Park and Bernal Heights (not to mention Noe Valley, the Richmond or Potrero Hill) into District 3 Central areas like Eureka and Noe Valley continue to be popular as do other areas where folks can get 101/280 access easily so they can commute to jobs in Silicon Valley.

The Whole Foods effect: With the addition of palm trees, new street lighting and repaving, Ocean Avenue (which straddles District 3 and 4) has itself been transformed and updated. Throw in a Whole Foods and the massive new rental inventory from Avalon it’s no wonder that the area’s natural proximity to 280, BART and MUNI were finally discovered.

Construction here is just emblematic of the District’s long-term growth plan. The massive Park Merced complex (those buildings behind Stonestown Mall, off of 19th Avenue as you go south out of the City) is already being torn down as part of a $15 billion, 15-year redevelopment project that’s gotten underway. The Park Merced project is the big game in town as its 40,000 new units make up the bulk of the total of 60,000 entitled units in the City’s entire new pipeline.    

Warning Will Robinson. Westwood Park (District 4) showed extraordinary strength in 2017. As demographic turnover continues in the area, which is known for very large, detached and charismatic houses that channel a bit of Southern California, folks looking to renovate houses into forever homes should beware of a few blocks of Plymouth Avenue where backyards abut City College’s parking lot. A bit of SoCal’s pesky suburban sprawl is on the way to the area in the form of 600-800 rental units from (of course) Avalon. The large dirt berm that separates the backyards of these houses on Plymouth from the parking lot will be bulldozed away. Construction is slated to take at least 2 years but who knows how many years property values will be impacted.  

District of the Year:
District 3 — The Southwest

Areas in yellow show where the prime real estate is for District 3 — between Ocean and Holloway. Also, note where on Plymouth Avenue will abutt Avalon's latest SF project that will replace parts of City College's parking lot

District 2: Houses in the Sunset need to improve to sustain price growth, otherwise expect steady values

People will get pickier. For example, the coveted 3-bedrooms-on-the-same-level layout will be at the top of people’s wish lists. Folks will want to live on the odd-side of a numbered avenue (to get views), developed in-law spaces that are flexible in use (income unit versus legitimate in-law use to an au pair unit) and finish level for flipped houses will be even more important going forward to motivate increasingly discerning buyers as prices move up (and up).

The Sunset’s prosperity may not translate to the Parkside.

As this cycle’s prosperity has moved from north to south and east to west the question that some folks may wonder is if the Central or Outer Parkside. Our guess is that while price strength may come to the area, the Parkside’s housing stock — especially the Outer Parkside — is smaller and denser with far fewer trees. Value-added homes will have to feature smarter design and higher-end finishes to get higher dollar-per-square foot prices than you might otherwise get for a Sunset home.  

West Portal’s limits is the Inner Parkside’s gain. 

We’ve talked about how the charm of this Americana-meets-San Francisco neighborhood has captured the imaginations and pocketbooks of buyers looking to have bigger homes with character and proximity. Indeed, average prices here are pushing past the $2 million mark, which has had a positive knock-on effect on its adjacent Inner Parkside neighborhood where there are more homes that have yet to undergo the mandatory Sunset-Parkside once-in-fifty-year updating. And while West Portal has been on many people’s radars for quite some time, the Inner Parkside’s growth curve just started about 3 years ago as $2 million is still a substantial number despite rising incomes. For both areas, watch for more fixer homes here go for higher prices especially if the house is on a bigger parcel with views and the potential for higher-end finishes or more desirable floorplans.    

 

Containing Enthusiasm
District 2 — The West

What will happen with the Sunset, Parkside and West Portal? Where's better and where's to come?

The Rest in a Nutshell
Quicker Thoughts About Up north, down south and out east

We saw home prices in District 7 and 8 decline slightly but only in the aggregate as fewer fixers are coming available as showcase houses take time to prepare

Don’t let the slight declines in the traditionally strong north side neighborhoods trip you up. As we’ve said many times before, when folks think of Pacific Heights they think of grand redone mansion-like homes. But when they got there they would oftentimes encounter musty old houses that needed to be redone. Nowadays when you are in Pacific Heights you’re more likely to encounter construction crews and port-a-potties as the musty old houses are undergoing the conversion into those big mansions you’re picturing (if you want to see completed mansions then you should go over Presidio Heights). Anyway, these projects take time to complete (2-3 years at least) and, if it’s a flip, face an interesting dilemma: at these high price points folks want to customize and personalize their homes rather than live with what a developer picks for the ‘market.’ But when done right, flipped homes will sell and will sell very well.

South Beach and South of Market

Price growth isn’t as strong as the rest of the City for a few reasons: an oversupply of same-looking inventory, increasing traffic congestion, MUNI light rail construction and new building construction in general. But once things get a little more settled down as projects get completed the housing inventory picture will become clearer (at least for a foreseeable future) and the area’s traffic issues should become better (fewer construction-related delays) condo prices will start to rise at a rate closer to the City’s 6 percent average. This should take place within the next 2-3 years. And, to combat the sameness issue we will start to see more distinctive projects and architecture like 181 Fremont for example.  

Bits and Bobs

Bayview: Thrown-together, opportunistic flipper projects in the Bayview where unsophisticated developers have pushed prices down.

Bernal Heights: housing prices have stabilized but are still very strong for projects that go the extra distance or are otherwise special and well-executed

There’s 6 Million sqft of UNFINISHED Office Space Already Spoken for in SF 

December 20, 2017 Buy Later, Buy Now, SoMa

In a continuation of what the new tax bill will mean for SF real estate, take a look at this…

…the number of high-octane tech companies looking to gobble up real estate is growing, and the cost of San Francisco’s Class A office space — already the most expensive in the country — is ready to spike again. Rents, which have soared 140 percent since 2010 and are now at an average of $74 a square foot, could go up another 10 percent, breaking the $80-a-square-foot average for the first time.

“The demand for tech has been strong, and it’s only accelerated since midyear,” said Colin Yasukochi, research director at the brokerage CBRE. “There is a good chance that rents will start to go up next year.”

The tech growth comes at a time when city planners are pushing forward with the Central SoMa rezoning, a plan that is expected to generate about 6 million square feet in office development. City planners say the Central SoMa rezoning, seven years in the making and delayed at least a year, will add badly needed tech office space and ease pressure on non-tech tenants, which have been increasingly forced out of the city by rising rents…

Read more here: SF’s tech-space market is ‘on fire’ — and so are the rents

How Will the G.O.P.’s new Tax Plan Impact San Francisco Real Estate?

Just as trickle-down economics has been shown to have little impact on how things really are, the GOP's latest tax plan, if it even gets approved, will have little impact on the purple Bay Area

We’ve been fielding a lot of these questions as there’s a lot anxiety and confusion over all of these proposed changes but there are a few essential facts to remember that various commentators and industry folks have been telling us which near repeating:  

 
1. A Stanford economist studied the likeliest changes that are in the pipeline and said that on a home purchase of $2M that the overall net difference from the current tax system to what could hit in January is $6,000. While it’s not a trivial amount of money it is relatively a small amount of money for folks who are purchasing at this price point; 
 
2. Anyone could torpedo the tax bill during the reconciliation period which, as you’d agree, is more than possible these days. One early draft of the tax bill said that if you were in escrow before the end of the year that you’d be fine, others (like you’ve seen) say that you had to be closed by November; so who really knows! 
 
3. If you’re more concerned on a larger existential sense consider the following: 
 
You hear the figure that California is the world’s 6th largest economy. What is less heard is that the Bay Area itself is the world’s 18th largest economy. The area’s GDP has been growing at 8-9 percent and this growth isn’t likely to diminish lately. Think about it: what’s at the root of the area’s economy are the companies that leveraged the change from a desktop-based economy to one that relies on mobile devices. Yes there’s the hardware component (HP, Intel, AMD, Apple) but also the data component (Facebook, Google, Twitter, Instagram, Yahoo, Netflix) and the app development infrastructure that services it all. Don’t forget we are the home of uber, Square, Stripe, eBay and PayPal too. Just think about all the people on their phones everywhere we go these days. Everyone has almost everything in their lives on their phones; this trend isn’t going to diminish anytime soon. If anything, life will be increasingly on our mobile devices, in the cloud and streaming. (Think about one of the latest cases argued at the Supreme Court: Carpenter v. United States). (I expect a check from the California Tourism Board any day now…) 
 
You’re buying in a place that is one of the most underserved housing market that is nevertheless facing enormous population pressure (because of the factors mentioned above) that isn’t easing up. And while it may seem like we have new construction everywhere you look, our sales manager ran into the Planning Director for the City yesterday and asked him how things are going, to which the Director said it’s the same as it’s been for the past 20 years for his department: they are overwhelmed with approvals running years from when they are first submitted.  For example, there are 7,000 units under construction at this moment but that’s just not enough as we need to have 20 years of 10,000 new units in order before housing prices to ease. What this speaks of is the enormously byzantine planning and building approval requirements that local and state regulations require; new housing cannot come online fast enough and people are still optimistic and building. Even with the horrible Wine Country fires people are already anticipating all of the rebuilding and the opportunity this type of reset that places like Santa Rosa never thought possible before. 
 
Last, you should remember that all of us in blue states (NY included) are getting screwed over by the Republican tax plan but it’s just the way it is. The alternative is for us to go and live in those other states where the tax bill won’t have as much impact. And while I like visiting my parents in Iowa, I’m always relieved by the fact that I’m only from there. It’s nice to visit but I’m only ever there temporarily as a visitor. Besides, high earners like us were already hitting limits in deductions anyway under current taxation and it really won’t make that much of a difference going forward. Yes, it’d be nice to pay lower taxes but we can’t have it all at the same time (at least for now). 

Think About All That Happened Over the Past 12 Years...

Just Don't Take Our Word For It...

Bay Area Economy Grows 3x the National Rate 

Business Times Article (Sept 2017) 

Check out the Fortune 500 

And see the ones in California

2017 SF Real Estate Stats — Early!

Sure, they’re not sales figures per se, but here’s what we have for “2017.”
In 2016 there were 3 homes that sold with the street address of 2017 — all of them were condominiums — located in Lower Pacific Heights, Telegraph Hill and Potrero Hill. The trio had an average list price of $1.45M and sale price of $1.62M, selling at an average of $1,137/sqft.

And there’s more…

39 properties sold on 20th Street or Avenue:

11 houses at $1.685M (@ $931/sqft)
17 condos/TICs at $1.352M (@1,075/sqft)
8 2-4 Unit Buildings at $1.72M (@587)
1 5+ Unit Buildings at $2.925M (@$449/sqft)
Meanwhile 17th Street and Avenue had the most activity in 2016. There were 68 sales reported with:

19 houses at $1.45M (@ $894/sqft)
44 condos/tics $1.045M (@ $1,009/sqft)
4 2-4 unit buildings $1.77M (@ $677/sqft)
1 5+ unit $3.285M (@ $528/sqft)

The Great Cooling Off — For Now 

 After four years of utter madness, our housing market might be turning. But how much, how fast, is a matter of debate.

Source: The Great Cooling Off

San Francisco Real Estate in 2016: Our Mid-Year Review

SIX MONTHS DOWN; SIX TO GO

Our Market is Holding Steady — Which is a Good Thing

Despite gloom and doom pessimism about market crashes and some kind of cliff, we’re seeing property values remain consistent with 2015. But there are readjustments taking place at the higher end of the market and annual gains have stabilized

2016 is halfway done already. So as we celebrate the country’s birthday by blowing up parts of it in the fog, it’s a good time to take a look at what San Francisco’s real estate market has been doing lately and where we’re going the rest of the year.

We start with the Brits

It’s a bit ironic that Britain has rightly or wrongly declared its own independence from the EU around the same time the Colonies did from King George III. That said, the Brexit vote has impacted our market in the following ways:

  1. Mortgage interest rates have fallen to lower and lower levels. Our friends at Citibank said that preferred Vanguard client priced 30-year fixed rate jumbo home loans are now hovering around 3.25% (with additional on-deposit discounts available);
  1. Financial market turmoil makes real estate look like a safer investment (again). I don’t know about you but my 401K took a 20% nosedive after the Brexit vote and I know that property prices in the City have adjusted recently (about 3-5% less than last year’s peaks is the prevailing figure in the City), it’s nowhere near a 20% decline that takes place overnight.

Data Says...

mls-data 2015 and 2016 1st 6 months

What do the numbers show?

Despite an increased sense of doom and gloom a look at the actual sales figures reported on San Francisco’s Multiple Listing Service shows that average San Francisco real property sale prices are holding relatively  steady compared to last year with 2-unit building average sale prices going up by 13% over the same period in 2015. Properties are taking longer to sell on average with TICs sitting on the market a lot longer and 2-unit buildings selling faster.

Are we in a bubble? Bubble burst? Or none of the above?

The numbers show that prices haven’t appreciated as they have in years’ past where average sale price figures regularly appreciated by 10–15% from year to year. But does this a bubble make or break? Not really. If anything, the way to think of the changes we’re seeing in the City is that we’re seeing some sanity return to our marketplace. Although it may seem like an abrupt change here it’s more of a subtle one where we’re rebalancing and retuning. Lots of buyers report that the East Bay continues to see soaring prices by folks who think they’re shut out of SF’s market. Those folks should think again and revisit the City. And sellers must remain patient and adjust expectations. Properties can and do sell well. It’s just a matter of when.

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P R E D I C T I O N S

What does the rest of 2016 Hold?

Gone Fishin’ We are now in the summer months, which means less traffic and business in San Francisco as more fog means more agents and clients try to get away from the City. This usually means there will be fewer listings and buyers out and about until Labor Day. That said, there are always quality listings that come out during the summer but for the fact that sellers have no other choice but to sell now rather than later.

Interest rates should remain low which will enable buyers to afford more but they will be pickier and pickier. There will also be more and more sophisticated lending from the likes of SoFi (10% down and no PMI) and greater use of adjustable rate loans and the such.

The market will be very fragmented with great properties being snapped up quickly and strongly with multiple bids. These are either the picture-perfect catalog homes or the steal-of-a-deal fixer with gobs of potential or killer location.

There will be less Chinese money and investment in our market.

The rental and new condo market will see more supply which will drive rents and prices down in the short term but because these units are exempt from rent control obligations value will remain strong. In either case this new inventory will need to be absorbed first.

An already slow approval and development process will slow down a little bit more because of global economic uncertainty or, at least the perception of such. his may mean that big San Francisco SOMA construction projects that aren’t already underway may be kept in a holding pattern as the City adjusts to having more units available. How this absorption takes place is also keyed into whether or not a greater number BMR units are mandated into new projects or if the City’s payroll tax incentive programs go away.

More and more Millennial buyers are entering the marketplace (and we/they now make up the biggest portion of the buyer demographic in the Bay Area — about 31%) This means there will be changes in what, when and how people will buy. Ask us for more about that!

The entry-level price points — $700,000-$1.1M — should be competitive. To win at these price points overbidding may still prove necessary. Be prepared to add 10% for a better location, another 10% for better property condition but there may be only 3-4 serious buyers out of a potential 6-8 competitors.

The mid-level price points — $1.2M-$2.2M — will be one where negotiation will be more important than it may have been in years past. This could involve move creative financing terms, rent-backs or otherwise.

The middle-high price points — $2.3M-$3M — will see properties take longer to sell than recently. Interest will be consistent and will be a matter of the right buyer coming along at the right time but sellers holding steady on value.

The highest price points — $3.5M+ — may see declines and reductions for properties with ‘flaws’ but increased price strength for quality properties with location, views, amenities and quality finishes. For properties with flaws Grade B location, finishes, lack of parking, etc, prices may decline anywhere from 5% to 8%.

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